Elections in 2027?

As Lebanon inches toward its next parliamentary elections, quiet discussions inside political corridors contrast sharply with public declarations of commitment to the democratic timetable.

Various lawmakers have repeatedly suggested postponing the vote; requests rarely voiced openly. The gap between what is said behind closed doors and what is declared in the media reflects deeper political anxieties and unresolved national questions.

Private doubts behind public discourse

According to political sources, several MPs favor delaying the elections for reasons that vary widely. Some fear they may not be re-nominated by their parties, others doubt their chances of re-election, while a few cite financial constraints despite being confident of victory.

Moreover, supporters of postponement also cite a lack of enthusiasm from foreign powers for elections unlikely to alter the balance of power or produce a strong Shiite opposition voice. Financial reform and weapons exclusivity are considered current priorities, with elections envisioned as a final step afterward.

President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have numerously reiterated a clear principle: elections should take place on time. Yet their words carry both resolve and an implicit awareness of the uncertainty surrounding that commitment.

A likely compromise scenario

Analysts suggest that the most likely scenario under discussion is a limited postponement until July or August 2026; something that MPs such as Elias Bou Saab has publicly hinted at. This option is framed as a compromise allowing Lebanese expatriates who return home during the summer to participate more easily. It is also seen as a middle ground between those demanding that expatriates vote for all 128 MPs from abroad and those supporting the current system of 6 seats representing 6 continents.

However, opening the door to any delay risks broader consequences. Some voices are even pushing for a postponement until 2027, linking elections to the completion of the sensitive file of weapons control. This also gives room for anxious and pressure political parties and blocs (such as the FPM and Shiite duo) to bolster the required support and regain their audiences trust and votes.

Such a delay, however, would create further complications. Elections in 2027 would extend the next parliament’s term to 2031, aligning parliamentary, municipal, and presidential elections in a single year; an unprecedented and politically fraught scenario. It would also ensure that the next parliament, not the current one, elects President Aoun’s successor.

Opposition to any delay whatsoever

Despite discreet advocacy for postponement, certain political parties and parliamentary blocs remain strongly opposed to any such scenario. Indeed, during the press conference that the head of the Lebanese Forces (LF) party, Samir Geagea, held at Maarab on 19 December 2025, The Beiruter asked whether the LF and its bloc would agree to postpone elections to secure voting for 128 Members of Parliament. However, Geagea claimed that the party is not forced to be confined between such scenarios, affirming that it would reject both any postponement as well as limiting the expatriates’ vote to merely 6 overseas MPs.

Likewise, MP Waddah Sadek to The Beiruter that “Of course, there are MPs and blocs that have an interest in postponement for political and electoral reasons. In my view, if postponement were put to a vote in Parliament and the session were held in secret, it could secure at least around 100 votes; to that extent, there is a strong desire among MPs to postpone.” However, “as a bloc, this issue is fundamental and decisive for us, and postponing the elections would be a catastrophe for the system of institutional and constitutional governance.” Sadek added that it would also be considered as “a blow to the mandate of both the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister.” Interestingly, the MP believed that “a technical postponement of around 2 months (to address the issue of expatriates) is not considered postponement in the full sense of the word, and it is an acceptable matter.”

Hence, Lebanon now faces a familiar paradox: loud calls to respect constitutional deadlines alongside discreet efforts to delay them. Between demands for timely elections and arguments for postponement, the coming months promise political maneuvering that will test both democratic commitments and public trust.